Aluminium production in the Gulf is at 38% below pre-war levels, but the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) warns the worst is still ahead.

Preliminary production data from the Gulf region shows aluminium output fell to 10,989 tpd in April 2026.

This is a 26.7% decline from the March figure of 15,000 tpd, and less than two-thirds of the pre-conflict baseline of approximately 17,800 tpd.

The numbers, collated by the IAI, confirm the level of disruption to Gulf production.

The region accounts for around 8% of global primary aluminium output.

However, it supplies approximately 19% of EU primary aluminium imports, 28% of Japanese primary aluminium imports, and 21% of US primary aluminium imports, making the supply shock far larger than its production share alone suggests.

IAI Secretary General Jonathan Grant said: “What we are seeing in April’s numbers is probably not the floor, it is a further deterioration that brings Gulf output to levels not seen in over a decade.

“The region’s smelters cannot replenish raw material stocks through the Strait of Hormuz and are trying alternate land routes to keep operating.

“That equation is now catching up with production in a very direct way.

“Aluminium is essential to modern industrial economies and with countries including the US, Japan and EU relying on Gulf smelters, this appears to be a slow-motion supply chain shock.”

Supply

In 2025, Gulf producers exported 860,500 tonnes of primary aluminium to the United States alone.

The EU received the equivalent of nearly one in five tonnes of its primary aluminium imports from the same five GCC producers.

Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey are also substantially exposed.

That metal feeds directly into automotive manufacturing, aerospace, construction, packaging and electrical infrastructure, the foundational supply chains of modern industrial economies.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping, finished metal that has already been produced is largely stranded at smelters, unable to reach customers.

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has confirmed export delays and warned it may draw on inventories held outside the region to meet contractual demand.

LME price

The LME aluminium price has reached a four-year high as markets react to the tightening supply picture.

US Midwest aluminium premiums – already the highest in the world – have surged further since the conflict began.

European duty-unpaid premiums have followed.

With Gulf production now running at approximately 38% below its pre-war daily rate, and global output showing no material compensating increases in other regions, the structural supply deficit is set to widen.

China, which accounts for approximately 60% of global production, has shown only marginal increases in output.

No other producing region is positioned to absorb a disruption of this scale at speed.

The IAI expects to publish final April production figures for the Gulf in the coming weeks.