Chinalco is the country's top aluminium producer through its company Chalco.
The trading arm, China Aluminum International Trading Company, sees more new capacity coming on stream in the second half of this year, which would push up full-year production of primary aluminium to 21.5Mt.
"2012's output would rise at least 10.5% from 2011," Li Dongguang, president of the trading unit wrote in a report on the Chinalco newsletter.
Global output, including China, would rise 7 percent to 48.8Mt in 2012 from 2011 as capacity in China, the Middle East and India rises.
Of the expected world demand, China would consume 21.3Mt this year, marking a yearly rise of 6.6%.